New England Patriots make the trip to the West Coast this Sunday to face the Los Angeles Rams at the SoFi Stadium. It’s the first of two games in LA for the Patriots, who must face the Chargers next Thursday. This is the first time the two teams have faced each other since the 2018 AFC Divisional Play-off in January 2019. It’s the first regular season game between them since 2017. Here, we’ll give you an idea of the key stats and match-ups to help you put together a winning betting strategy.
Patriots rush versus Chargers pass
The Patriots have won three out of their last four games, with their overall season record standing at 5-6. Their strong running game should give them an edge over the Chargers, but it has shown signs of stuttering in recent weeks. Damien Harris failed to hit 50 yards running for the second week in succession last weekend, with teams now stacking the box against the Patriots and forcing them to adjust, something they have struggled to do. The Chargers concede an average of over 120 yards per game and 4.8 yards per carry (30th in the NFL), however, so this looks like a good week for Harris to recover his mojo.
The Chargers will probably be able to do some damage to the Patriots’ passing game, with Cam Newton coming off one of the worst games of his career last weekend. Newton has been struggling to hit receivers and cope with opposition defenses rushing him. The Chargers secondary is currently 10th in the league, allowing an average of 222.5 yards per game. Their corner backs Chris Harris and Casey Hayward have performed solidly, while safeties Nassir Adderley, RayShawn Jenkins and Jahleel Addae all regularly contribute effectively.
On offense, the Chargers will surely look to pass. Rookie QB Justin Herbert replaced the injured Tyrod Taylor in week two and hasn’t looked back since. He has completed at more than 66% and thrown for 23 touchdowns. The Chargers are the second best passing offense in the NFL. The Patriots secondary has been inconsistent all season, something that the Chargers will look to exploit.
Our Pick: Chargers win by 1-6
This is a very tough game to call, but we think that home advantage just about hands the Chargers the edge. We think that they will win by one to six points, an outcome that 888Sport has priced at +335. Those odds look tempting to us, as long as the Chargers can pull their rushing defense together. The Patriots have not looked good with their rushing offense and that might just be key to the result on Sunday. If Herbert finds form then we expect the Chargers to be celebrating on Sunday.
Our pick: Chargers by 1-6 @ +335 with 888Sport