Positive EV Betting Guide — How to Calculate Expected Value

Positive EV betting explained

There are plenty of reasons to get to know what positive EV betting means. In essence, EV betting is a strategy whereby you identify odds that don’t quite align with the implied probability of an outcome happening. In these instances, you will be able to take advantage of these odds, or ‘value bets’, in order to potentially get better returns than you would otherwise receive.

So, what is positive expected value? Imagine that you want to bet on the Green Bay Packers but they have odds of +400 for an upcoming fixture against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Tom Brady is out of the picture so you feel that the Packers have a slightly better chance to win that odds of +400. If you feel that the odds of them winning is closer to +200, then this is known as positive EV.

Naturally, this might all sound great in theory. Plus, it can seem confusing at first. Positive EV betting is a step beyond simply betting on a team to win. However, with a little bit of patience and legwork, you’ll quickly find that EV betting isn’t nearly as complicated as you might have thought. Added to which, you’ll be equipped to use your own predictions and expected value and compare these with sportsbooks’ expectations. In certain cases, you will find that your own predictions are better than a sportsbook’s and thus enable you to make use of great value bets.

Calculating positive EV betting - is value betting profitable?

All this talk of ‘expected value’ and ‘implied probability’ is enough to deter anyone from proceeding. As such, we feel that a positive EV betting example will put things in perspective. For this to work, we’re going to use a sporting fixture between the Houston Astros and the Atlanta Braves to drive home our point!

• Atlanta Braves: -220
• Houston Astros: +300

It’s clear that the Braves are favorites. However, you want to know what the implied probability is at these odds and whether your own predictions align with the sportsbooks’ implied probability. For favorites, you take the odds and divide by the odds plus 100. You then multiply by 100 to get the implied probability [ 220 / (220 + 100) x 100 = 68.75% ].

If you feel that the Braves have a 75% chance of winning, then you have managed to find positive expected value.

You can do the same for the Astros with a slightly different formula. All you need to do for underdogs is divide 100 by the odds plus 100, and then multiply by 100 [ 100 / (300 + 100) x 100 = 25% ]. If you feel that the Astros have a 30% chance of winning, then you have once again noted positive EV and a value bet!

Positive EV betting - can I guarantee a profit?

You might be wondering whether it is possible to guarantee a profit with this strategy. It’s vital to realize that EV sports betting won’t provide you with a 100% outlook of making a profit. Nothing in sports betting is guaranteed when it comes to realizing returns on bets. However, positive EV betting is certainly a dynamic strategy that you can adopt in order to gain better insights into which bets actually have value.

Much of this technique will come down to your own foresights and sporting predictions. You need to understand the markets inside and out. As such, it’s a good idea to do your research and follow sports developments closely. Plus, you need to keep tabs on the latest odds being offered by sportsbooks. When you are able to identify value bets using your own predictions and the odds being offered, you will come to find that you can profit in the long run.

Expert tips for positive EV betting online

Lastly, we hope to impart on you several tips for EV betting. If you wish to make use of this betting technique in the future, you can always revert back to our latest guide. These tips will prove invaluable as you attempt to find value bets on the top online sportsbook sites in the US.

• Early bird catches the worm: It’s important that you get involved as early as possible. Odds will be regularly updated on sportsbook sites. If odds have been posted and they offer value, this won’t be the case for long. Sportsbooks update their odds leading up to fixtures and events. The further out you assess odds, the more variables are at play. This means that you are more likely to find something of value!
• Weigh up your options: This is the case for all sports betting offers and features. There’s little point in signing up with the first sportsbook that you come across. You need to take the time to compare and contrast odds across betting platforms. If you do this, you will certainly be able to find value bets. One day, you might note that a sportsbook has mispriced odds. However, they’ll soon rectify this. Use our latest reviews to find out more about the latest odds at sportsbooks sites.
• Stick to smaller betting markets: Sportsbooks control betting markets with a vigilant eye when it comes to major league games. This is even more true for postseason games and finals. You’re going to struggle to find really valuable bets if betting on the Stanley Cup. Thus, you will need to cast your net wider and assess less popular markets! Here, you are bound to find positive EV for a number of betting options.

Conclusion - positive EV betting

Knowing how to utilize betting techniques in your favor is a great way to better your chances of success. Positive EV betting will ensure that you are able to quickly identify betting opportunities which provide more value to you than what the odds have to say.

We recommend that you find out how to use an expected value betting calculator so that you are able to really make the most of value bets online. Remember, there are great tools available these days. You simply need to know how to use them to your advantage and you will be able to improve your betting insights. Moreover, you’ll simply be enhancing your betting experience. All of which contributes to a more complete betting endeavor on your end!

1.877

Pick

898

Wins

21.5%

ROI

Positive EV betting FAQs