EV betting - get to know the concept
EV, or expected value, betting is a concept that centers around understanding the expectations of a sportsbook when it comes to an outcome. It also includes comparing your own expectations relevant to the same outcomes and then making an assessment on the difference in probability between your expectations and the sportsbooks expectations.
You might have guessed that the sportsbook's expectations are represented by the odds that are offered on any one outcome. Odds simply display the implied probability of an outcome occurring. In essence, EV betting is the process of identifying value bets which are bets where you feel that the implied probability is less, or more, than what is represented by the odds on offer for a specific event/outcome. Getting to know where you have an advantage over a sportsbook is the crux of EV betting.
You’ll also come to find that positive EV betting is a popular technique and it’s a good idea to wrap your head around this concept, too. Fortunately, you needn’t head off to far flung corners of the internet to do so. You can simply read our latest guide, and our section below, to find out more. This will ensure that your EV betting approach is well thought-through from all sides.
Implied probability and odds - the crux of the matter
When it comes to EV betting, you need to make use of the underlying odds to calculate the implied probability of an outcome occurring. With expected value, you will find there is a positive and negative expected value. Of course, positive expected value means one outcome has a better than 50% chance of occurring. A negative value means a specific outcome (such as a team winning a game) has less than 50% probability of winning. Let’s assume the Rangers have odds of -140 and the Blues have odds of +170.
All you need to do to convert odds to implied probability is to divide 100 by the odds plus 100.
Rangers: 100 / -140 +100 = 60%
Blues: 100 / +170 + 100 = 37.03%
Thus, the Rangers have a positive EV while the Blues have a negative EV. Bear in mind that doing mental arithmetic isn’t necessary these days. You can make the most of the latest EV betting calculator which will ensure that your calculations are correct to the nth degree.
Does EV betting work?
EV betting is a long-term approach as you won’t necessarily place bets that are successful all of the time. The purpose of this technique is to give you an insight into which bets actually provide you with good value. Instead of simply backing a team that you think will win outright, you identify bets which will provide you with a decent return over the medium- to long-run.
There are always value bets to be found if you take the time to implement an EV betting approach. Once you are familiar with how to go about this, then you’ll be in the prime position to capitalize on bets that have odds disparities.
Top tips for EV sports betting
It might all sound somewhat complex. However, EV betting can provide you with some great opportunities to benefit from value bets online. Before you jump right in though, we have outlined several tips that will help you make the most of EV betting in the US.
- Sign up with multiple sportsbook sites: Naturally, there are only so many EV betting options on any one site. The expected value of bets will not always be in your favor. For the most part, sportsbooks are very precise in the odds that they offer you. If they weren’t, they’d simply be shooting themselves in the foot. As such, it’s imperative that you shop around. You’ll be able to find more opportunities if you analyze multiple sportsbook fronts. Thus, it’s a good idea to find several appealing sportsbooks and create valid accounts. This will ensure that you are able to cast your net a whole lot wider.
- Steer clear of mainstream markets: Sportsbooks will definitely not overextend themselves when it comes to major league events and games. The biggest games of the year will be monitored closely and markets will be priced to precision. As such, you should delve into less popular sports markets. Here, you will manage to find a number of EV betting opportunities that actually work in your favor.
- Time your bets: Naturally, timing your bets is a big part of online betting in general. However, EV betting opportunities definitely require you to identify bets and place wagers in a timeous manner. Keep in mind that value bets are most likely to come into play from the get-go. Sportsbooks might update odds at the start only to realize that the relevant odds are undervalued or overvalued. It’s at this opportune time that you will have the best chance to capitalize on value bets. Your chances of making a real go of EV betting diminish the longer odds have been online for.
- Don’t bet with your heart: One of the major mistakes that bettors make is to stick with their favorite teams. It’s vital that you keep your allegiances out of EV betting options. If you bet with your heart, you won’t be able to stick to a predefined strategy. This goes against the grain of what is required of you if you wish to make a real go of EV betting. This approach requires you to bet with your head and stick to the strategy at hand. If you can remove your emotion from the equation, you’ll be able to be far more analytical in your betting process.
Conclusion - apply your EV betting technique
If you have read our other guides, you will know that matched betting isn’t legal in the US. EV betting is a great alternative that you can make use of. You will come to find that EV betting provides you with great insights into how you can identify value bets online. Remember, you can also make use of online tools to calculate the expected value nowadays. We believe that EV betting is a great analysis and betting technique if you wish to find value over time.
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