Passionate gambler with great insights
Passionate gambler with great insights
The super bowl attracts millions of audiences annually in the United States and around the world. The Super Bowl is much more than a sports event, its world class entertainment at its very core.
The extent of the game stretches so far that even a 30-second commercial spot during the broadcast costs companies several million dollars. Nearly 300 million dollars was wagered in the last super bowl from punters. You may wonder “a whopping 300 million dollars? Yes, very correct and the Super Bowl odds account for this mega cash flow.
Before we get into the finer details of Super Bowl gambling odds, we first need to understand exactly what they are. If you’re totally new to betting, a page of Super Bowl odds to win markets may seem confusing. However, SuperBowl odds can be really simple.
Firstly, let’s understand them conceptually. All odds represent a percentage of probability. +100 represents a 50% probability. In other words, the bookmaker thinks that market has a 50% chance of coming true. If you were looking at SuperBowl odds this year for a team to win, that would mean the bookmaker believed that team has an evens chance of winning.
It’s important to put it into these terms to understand the overround, but also to really put into perspective the market. That way, you can decide whether you think that’s a good prediction or not. Looking at just a plus or a minus number and deciding whether those odds are worth your while can be kind of abstract. But when you realise they represent a percentile prediction, you can get a much better idea of whether or not you think the bookmaker has made a mistake.
That’s the real trick to finding good markets: locating where you think the current odds for Super Bowl markets are mistaken and backing what you think is a correct prediction.
The second part of this equation is turning the odds amount into a cash return and seeing whether you think that amount is worth the risk, all things considered. Thankfully, this is done for you by the bookmaker (or certainly should be) when you enter your amount in the bet slip. For reference, $10 on +100 odds would net you a $10 return, for a total of $20. That’s the same for Super Bowl odds to win, or any other current odds for Super Bowl markets.
Converting the odds into a percentage and a cash amount is actually very easy. Do note that we’re using American Odds at this point as our example because they’re most prominent on American markets like the Super Bowl. The conversion to a percentage is 100 divided by the odds plus 100, x 100. So, the formula for +100 is 100 divided by 200 x 100. That comes out as 50, which means the implied probability of this is 50%
We’ve used evens to keep things simple here, but the formulas work for other odds on any Super Bowl odds today, Superbowl odds this year, or indeed, any Super Bowl gambling odds you’re ever likely to find in the future.
Now, these formulas are only the case when it comes to plus American odds markets. Plus American odds markets are what you have seen here and will see when the odds represent 50% and under implied probability – not just for the Super Bowl but any kind of sport or event.
If the market is a favourite, then you’ll see a minus sign next to a number. For example -400 represents a 80% implied probability. The formula here is the odds divided by the odds + 100, divided by 100. So in this case, that would be 400 divided by 500, x 100. 400 divided by 500 is 0.8 and that means if you multiply that by 100, you get 80. That translates to 80%. For reference, $10 would net you $2.50 return, for a total of $12.50.
Of course, in the case of any cash returns, that should be easy to check through your bookmaker before you make the bet. What’s important to understand is that all odds, such as American odds, are simply a way of articulating an implied probability. Understanding that, and what that implied probability represents by a percentage, is key is not only wrapping your head around what odds are, but also being able to analyse them against your own predictions.
Now that we’ve stripped back the mysteries of the Super Bowl, we suppose it’s time to crack another one to help you contextualise them, and thus, make more informed decisions around the current odds for Super Bowl.
The way that bookies come up with odds is primarily the same way you do: they use statistics, research, and often algorithms to come up with what they think is the most accurate prediction. Because we’re talking about Super Bowl gambling odds, there’s obviously seasons worth of data to pour through, so having teams of people and the best technology is the edge they have on the average better.
That said, they’re ultimately just people making a prediction on a sport event, just like you. Always remember the Super Bowl odds today and the SuperBowl odds this year always amount to that.
You also have a distinct advantage. Bookmakers are also tied to the shifts in the market. Ultimately, they need to stay competitive with a huge amount of competition. When it comes to an event of this magnitude, there’s an incredible number of options. This means their odds aren’t really a free choice like yours are, because they have to follow those tides to stay profitable.
The current of those tides are also impacted by betting trends, as bookmakers adjust to large amounts of bets to weigh up how they can make money. For something like Super Bowl odds to win, that pull can be massive. In other words, bookmakers odds are a mixture of their predictions and outside forces: the latter of which makes your prediction a great deal more free than theirs.
You may be wondering what this analysis is all about. Can’t we just tell you where the best SuperBowl odds are? Well, no actually. It’s the case with any and all markets, but when it comes to something like Super Bowl odds to win, or indeed any current odds for Super Bowl markets, all of the top bookies are fighting it out to provide the best odds they can.
However, none can lay claim to consistently offering the best odds. It would be logistically impossible for one to do so, because one implied percentage takes from another. That said, even if there’s no absolute best current odds for Super Bowl operators, there are some that are better than others, even if one may have the best Super Bowl odds to win in that instance.
It goes without saying that the more generous the return, the better the odds. Obviously, whether it’s current odds for Super Bowl, or any other event or sport, getting more money for a winning bet is always the goal of good odds. In terms of objectively quantifying SuperBowl odds though, there are a couple of key methods.
First is the overround. You know how before we talked about how the odds convert into implied percentages? Well, if you take all the possible markets in a set, they should logically all come to 100% when you add up all implied percentages from the Super Bowl betting lines.
Take the Super Bowl odds to win markets. There you have two possibilities. 100% means certain, so logically, they must come to 100%, because one of them winning is certain. But, it will come to more than 100%, and that’s the overround. It’s the edge the bookie has on you, and essentially how they stay in business in an unpredictable betting world. The closer to 100%, the better the deal you’re getting.
The good news here is the Super Bowl is an incredibly competitive event, meaning you can often get very generous odds. For instance, say one team has -170 odds to win, and the other has +150 odds to win. This translates to 63% and 40%. These would be very good odds because the bookmakers margin is only 3%. You could say these were objectively excellent Super Bowl odds to win markets.
The other way is even simpler to compare the bookmakers’ odds against each other on any given market to see who gives you the best return. From a purely pragmatic point of view, this may be the most logical route. Be sure too to check for any promotions, such as enhanced odds to help boost those odds. With big events like this, bookies are often keen to provide promotions to drive business their way.
When it comes to the SuperBowl, popularity is a virtue. You may think that with so many people wanting to bet on the event, that would be to the bookmaker’s advantage. While we’re certain they make plenty of money this time of year, the ball is very much in your court.
All the top operators – at least the smart ones – know very well that you have countless places to choose from, and they’ll have to provide something special to make you pick them. This often results in an excellent betting experience and maybe a promotion or too, as well as great SuperBowl odds. It’s simply knowing where to look, which is exactly what we’re here to help you with all your SuperBowl betting needs. Need some more guidance? We've got an awesome SuperBowl prop bets 2022 guide just for you.
Plenty of people head on over to their favourite bookmaker leading up to the Super Bowl only to find that the odds seem meaningless to them. We know that to determine what markets are right for you and whether the payout is competitive, it’s important to understand exactly what those odds represent. Find out more as part of our deep dive into Super Bowl odds.
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